August looked like the bottom of the slide. September said otherwise: buyers stepped back in numbers, the year-over-year discount widened again, and the only thing that didn't change was that there is still very little to buy.
The headline numbers
| Greater Toronto Area, September 2026 | Figure | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,040 | −9.0% |
| New listings | 16,500 | −14.4% |
| Active listings | 26,131 | −9.3% |
| Average selling price | $1,006,409 | −5.1% |
| Median selling price | $860,000 | −5.4% |
| MLS® HPI Composite benchmark | $917,600 | −4.7% |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 98% | — |
| Average days on market | 34 | +3.0% |
| Months of inventory (derived) | 5.2 | — |
| Sales-to-new-listings (derived) | 31% | — |
What actually happened
Sales fell 9.0% year over year, to 5,040. That is a materially worse number than August's 2.1% decline, and it is the demand side of the ledger finally showing the strain TRREB has been describing for months. The board's own framing is that buyers are "in a holding pattern," weighed down by uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs.
Supply kept shrinking at the same time. New listings fell 14.4% and active listings fell 9.3% — a third consecutive month of meaningful contraction. So the market is getting smaller on both sides at once, which is why the inventory picture barely moved: 5.2 months of inventory, against 4.8 in August.
The price line is the one that will get quoted. The average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1% year over year, against 2.7% in August. The mix-adjusted HPI benchmark was down 4.7%, essentially unchanged from August's 4.5%.
Read those two numbers carefully, because they disagree less than they look. Month over month, the unadjusted average price actually rose, from $993,410 in August to $1,006,409 in September. The year-over-year decline widened mostly because September 2025 was a strong month — $1,060,036 — not because prices fell hard in September 2026. On a seasonally adjusted basis TRREB reports both the HPI Composite and the average price edging lower against August. The honest summary: prices are drifting gently downward, and the headline 5.1% is doing a lot of work that belongs to last year's base.
Where the softness actually is
The region-wide figure hides four quite different markets:
| Property type | Sales | Average price | Sales Y/Y | Price Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,399 | $1,292,016 | −8.7% | −5.1% |
| Semi-detached | 459 | $1,015,202 | −8.2% | −0.2% |
| Townhouse | 803 | $820,637 | −12.8% | −4.6% |
| Condominium apartment | 1,316 | $605,257 | −7.8% | −7.7% |
Semi-detached houses were the standout: sales down 8.2% in line with everything else, but average price essentially flat against last September, off two-tenths of a percent. Detached houses gave up 5.1%. Condominium apartments remain the weakest segment on price, down 7.7% — the continuing backdrop for anyone watching Humber Bay Shores or Mimico. Townhouses had the sharpest drop in transactions, down 12.8%.
Inside the 416
The City of Toronto recorded 1,937 sales in September at an average price of $1,034,320, against 6,521 new listings and 9,865 active listings. The city's HPI Composite benchmark was $908,200, down 3.8% year over year — once again a shallower decline than the GTA as a whole.
| Property type | Sales | Average price |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | 640 | $1,562,966 |
| Semi-detached | 211 | $1,207,884 |
| Townhouse | 189 | $922,445 |
| Condominium apartment | 884 | $640,248 |
City semi-detached houses are the quiet strength of this market: 211 sales at an average of $1,207,884, up 2.1% year over year while every other type in the 416 fell. If you own a semi in the old city, September was a good month for your number.
West Toronto
TRREB reports Toronto West — the W districts, running from Roncesvalles out through Etobicoke — separately from Central and East. In September the west end recorded 532 sales at an average price of $985,920 and a median of $830,000, against 1,687 new listings and 2,543 active listings. Properties sold at 99% of list price, a point above the GTA, and spent 33 days on market against the region's 34.
| Toronto West, September 2026 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Sales | 532 |
| Average price | $985,920 |
| Median price | $830,000 |
| New listings | 1,687 |
| Active listings | 2,543 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99% |
| Average days on market | 33 |
The pattern we flagged in August held through September: the west end is selling closer to asking and faster than the region, and its benchmark prices are behaving better than the GTA's. In TRREB's MLS® HPI tables, several of the Etobicoke and Lakeshore districts show composite benchmarks flat to modestly higher than a year ago, while the GTA composite is down 4.7%. That is a real divergence, and it is the single most useful thing in this month's release for a west-end owner.
Why we don't publish district-by-district numbers. TRREB breaks Toronto West into ten districts, and at that level a month can turn on a handful of transactions — in The Kingsway, Sunnylea or Humber Valley, two or three sales can move an average by six figures. TRREB's per-district activity table is also laid out in a way that does not transcribe reliably, and we would rather publish nothing than publish a number we cannot stand behind. We report the West aggregate, which is large enough to mean something, and we look at your specific street when it actually matters. That is a conversation with real comparables, not a chart.
Rates, and what's behind the numbers
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% again in September. Borrowing costs have been flat for most of a year now, which is why TRREB keeps pointing at confidence rather than affordability as the binding constraint: the board's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, describes "substantial pent-up demand" from households who intend to buy but want to be sure of their employment and of inflation first.
TRREB also used the September release to press its long-running case against Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax, and to tie the housing file to the coming municipal election. That is advocacy rather than data, but it is a fair indicator of what the board thinks is holding the market back.
What this means for you
If you're thinking of selling
The argument for listing this fall is unchanged and still good: there are roughly 2,700 fewer active listings across the GTA than a year ago, and in the west end you are selling into a market that is paying 99 cents on the dollar of asking. The argument against optimistic pricing is also unchanged and got slightly stronger — 5.2 months of inventory and a 9% drop in buyers is not a market that rewards testing a number. Price it where the comparables are and you will transact. Our guide to what it costs to sell in Toronto covers the other half of the decision.
If you're buying
September was the first month in a while where buyers clearly had the upper hand on volume — fewer of you competing. The catch is that the selection shrank just as fast. If you have been waiting for a better entry point on a condominium, this is the softest that segment has been, down 7.7% year over year. On houses, your leverage is real but it is negotiating leverage, not a falling market to wait out. Have financing and a lawyer arranged now.
If you're staying put
Nothing here requires action. A west-end house is worth roughly what it was worth a year ago, and in several Etobicoke pockets slightly more. Values in established neighbourhoods are set over decades, not quarters.
All statistics from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's September 2026 Market Watch and MLS® Home Price Index releases; policy rate from the Bank of Canada. Figures are reported as published; months of inventory, the sales-to-new-listings ratio and the median year-over-year change are our own calculations from TRREB's counts. TRREB periodically restates historical data, so year-over-year comparisons may differ from previously published figures — including from figures in our own earlier reports.
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