October read better than September on price and worse on volume — and the month's most consequential event landed three days before it ended, when the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate for the first time in three years.
The headline numbers
| Greater Toronto Area, October 2026 | Figure | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,603 | −7.9% |
| New listings | 14,173 | −11.9% |
| Active listings | 25,098 | −10.0% |
| Average selling price | $1,024,108 | −2.7% |
| Median selling price | $860,000 | −4.4% |
| MLS® HPI Composite benchmark | $916,400 | −4.3% |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 97% | — |
| Average days on market | 31 | 0.0% |
| Months of inventory (derived) | 4.5 | — |
| Sales-to-new-listings (derived) | 40% | — |
What actually happened
Sales fell 7.9% year over year, to 5,603. That is still a weak number, but it is a smaller decline than September's 9.0%, and the direction of travel within the month was upward: on a seasonally adjusted basis TRREB reports both sales and new listings rose compared with September.
Supply kept draining away. New listings fell 11.9% and active listings fell 10.0%. Because listings shrank faster than sales, the market actually tightened: 4.5 months of inventory against 5.2 in September, and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 40% against 31%.
The price line is the one that changed character. The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7% year over year — against 5.1% in September. The mix-adjusted HPI Composite benchmark was $916,400, down 4.3%, a shade better than September's 4.7%.
Last month we warned that the headline was doing work that belonged to last year's base. This month that cuts the other way — and the short-run signals finally agree. Part of the improvement is arithmetic: October 2025 was a weaker month ($1,052,539) than September 2025 ($1,060,036), so the comparison is kinder. But unlike September, the month-over-month picture points the same way. The unadjusted average price rose from $1,006,409 to $1,024,108, and on a seasonally adjusted basis TRREB reports the HPI Composite and the average price both edging up against September. That is the first month in a while where the year-over-year and month-over-month readings have not contradicted each other.
Where the softness actually is
The region-wide figure hides four quite different markets:
| Property type | Sales | Average price | Sales Y/Y | Price Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,693 | $1,310,627 | −4.4% | −3.2% |
| Semi-detached | 546 | $1,024,907 | −8.1% | −0.8% |
| Townhouse | 933 | $804,416 | −11.0% | −5.0% |
| Condominium apartment | 1,385 | $621,400 | −10.4% | −5.8% |
Semi-detached houses were again the most resilient on price, off eight-tenths of a percent against last October, though transactions fell 8.1%. Detached houses — the biggest slice of the market at 48% of sales — held up best on volume, down only 4.4%, with prices off 3.2%. The weakness is concentrated at the attached and apartment end: townhouse and condominium transactions were both down more than 10%, and condominium apartments remain the softest segment on price at −5.8%. That is the continuing backdrop for anyone watching Humber Bay Shores or Mimico.
Inside the 416
The City of Toronto recorded 2,184 sales in October at an average price of $1,075,627 and a median of $835,000, against 5,451 new listings and 9,526 active listings. The city's HPI Composite benchmark was $908,800, down 3.6% year over year — once again a shallower decline than the GTA's 4.3%.
| Property type | Sales | Average price | Sales Y/Y | Price Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 741 | $1,603,886 | +0.5% | −1.2% |
| Semi-detached | 266 | $1,225,229 | +1.5% | +0.5% |
| Townhouse | 217 | $927,804 | −13.2% | +4.2% |
| Condominium apartment | 949 | $659,214 | −10.7% | −5.6% |
Those first two rows are the most interesting numbers in the whole release. Detached and semi-detached sales in the old city were up year over year — the only two segments anywhere in October's report with rising transaction counts — and city semi-detached prices rose half a percent. Freehold houses inside the 416 are behaving like a different market from the region around them, and have been for several months now.
West Toronto
TRREB reports Toronto West — the W districts, running from Roncesvalles out through Etobicoke — separately from Central and East. In October the west end recorded 570 sales at an average price of $982,813 and a median of $856,750, against 1,413 new listings and 2,422 active listings. Properties sold at 98% of list price, a point above the GTA, and spent 30 days on market against the region's 31.
| Toronto West, October 2026 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Sales | 570 |
| Average price | $982,813 |
| Median price | $856,750 |
| New listings | 1,413 |
| Active listings | 2,422 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98% |
| Average days on market | 30 |
The pattern we have flagged since August held again: the west end sells closer to asking and faster than the region, and its benchmark prices behave better than the GTA's. In TRREB's MLS® HPI tables, several of the Etobicoke and Lakeshore districts show composite benchmarks flat to modestly higher than a year ago, while the GTA composite is down 4.3%. That divergence is now five months old, which makes it a trend rather than a blip, and it remains the single most useful thing in each month's release for a west-end owner.
Why we don't publish district-by-district numbers. TRREB breaks Toronto West into ten districts, and at that level a month can turn on a handful of transactions — in The Kingsway, Sunnylea or Humber Valley, two or three sales can move an average by six figures. We would rather publish nothing than publish a number we cannot stand behind. We report the West aggregate, which is large enough to mean something, and we look at your specific street when it actually matters. That is a conversation with real comparables, not a chart.
Rates, and what's behind the numbers
On October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50% — its first increase in three years, after holding at 2.25% through most of 2026. Almost every sale counted in this report closed before that decision, so October's numbers are a photograph of the market in the last moment before borrowing costs turned. TRREB's posted mortgage rates for the month were 5.49% on a one-year term, 6.05% on three years and 6.19% on five.
TRREB's framing is that price weakness has been doing the work that rates are not. Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer notes that buyers "continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year," and that while borrowing costs have risen on the back of higher inflation, lower selling prices have kept monthly payments in check. President Daniel Steinfeld ties the 2027 outlook to a Canada–U.S. trade deal and to the conflict in the Middle East. Chief Executive John DiMichele points to HST rebates and development-charge reductions as the medium-term supply story.
The honest read: October was a month in which the market steadied, and then the single biggest input to it changed. November and December will tell us whether the steadying survives a rate that is going up instead of sideways.
What this means for you
If you're thinking of selling
The case for listing got better this month, not worse. There are roughly 2,800 fewer active listings across the GTA than a year ago, inventory tightened to 4.5 months from 5.2, and the west end is paying 98 cents on the dollar of asking in 30 days. The one new consideration is the rate decision: if borrowing costs keep rising, the buyer pool you are selling into is likelier to be smaller in the spring than it is now. That argues for acting on a good listing rather than waiting for a better market. Our guide to what it costs to sell in Toronto covers the other half of the decision.
If you're buying
Your negotiating leverage is real but it is no longer improving. Prices stopped falling against last year at the same time as selection kept shrinking, and the rate increase on October 28 raises the cost of waiting. If you have been holding out for a better entry point on a condominium, that segment is still the softest in the market — down 5.8% on price and down 10.4% on transactions — and it is the one place where waiting still looks defensible. On freehold houses, especially inside the 416, the numbers have turned: detached and semi sales there were up year over year. Get financing confirmed and a rate held now rather than later.
If you're staying put
Nothing here requires action. A west-end house is worth roughly what it was worth a year ago, and in several Etobicoke pockets slightly more. Values in established neighbourhoods are set over decades, not quarters.
All statistics from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's October 2026 Market Watch and MLS® Home Price Index releases; policy rate from the Bank of Canada. Figures are reported as published; months of inventory, the sales-to-new-listings ratio and the median year-over-year change are our own calculations from TRREB's counts. TRREB periodically restates historical data, so year-over-year comparisons may differ from previously published figures — including from figures in our own earlier reports.
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